When watching a big game on TV, all fans have in one way or the other taken part in predicting the outcome. Viewers confidently call the winners before kickoff, tip-off or the first pitch and do it based on form, reputation, or gut instinct. In today’s day and age, sporting analytics is more structured. When watching live matches, fans can go beyond checking expert opinion by looking at match performance to enhance their own predictions.
Sports Analytics is the science of gathering, structuring and analysing data to uncover patterns and predict future performance. This advanced data is now easily accessible on public websites, league databases and analytics platforms. This change enables anyone, not just the team’s members, to grasp the reason behind a team’s success rather than just taking the word of the headline, popularity, or emotion of the viewer.
Sports analytics and why it matters
Sports analytics is a practice that takes the action out of sports reporting. There may be hidden weaknesses or strengths.
For sports gamers who are studying to predict sports games, analytics offers a base to gauge probability not certainty. While no model can promise a result, there are trends, strengths, weaknesses and matchup advantages that a data-based model can provide viewers with to help them better assess.
Core analytics metrics fans can actually use
Analysis is most effectively done if meaningful statistics are selected, not all numbers are collected. Advanced metrics can offer insights into the “how’s and why’s” of results and whether it is likely to sustain.
Key player performance metrics
In the NBA, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is a total statistic, which accounts for players’ overall statistical productivity on a per-minute basis. It aggregates and compares scoring, rebounding, assists, steals, blocks and more. Usage Rate (USG%) indicates how much a player is used against the ball, allowing fans to gauge the amount of production from opportunity or actual effectiveness.
In the NFL, the passing yards are not the only measure available to consider when examining quarterback performance, so the passing rates, Quarterback Rating (QBR) and Expected Points Added (EPA) per play are a better way to go. The difference between the two models is that QBR takes into account how well a quarterback is performing under various conditions while EPA is a reflection of his decision-making ability under the same conditions.
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and OPS+ are baseball metrics that can be used to assess the value of a player beyond just his batting average. WAR measures a player’s total value in relation to a player who is hitting at replacement level, while OPS+ adjusts the player’s offensive value for league and ballpark.
Fans should be looking at a 5-10 game trend, not just one great moment. Longer patterns tend to yield greater strength of evidence.
Essential team-level statistics
Team stats provide a general overview of the team’s performance. Net Rating is a basketball term that compares the points scored by a team with the points allowed by an opponent over a 100 possessions and indicates whether a team has a pattern of outscoring the other team. In the football context, Net EPA and DVOA are statistics that take into account efficiency and opponent strength to measure the quality of a player’s performance.
Another important consideration is strength of schedule. A team that is an average face mile against elite opposition can be better than an impressive face mile against weaker opponents. Context changes statistics.
There is also the situational aspect. The splits, rest, travel and pace can affect results. A good prediction model utilizes these facts rather than one number.
Where to find free sports analytics data
You don’t have to be a professional sports data scientist to get started with sports analytics. Official league resources are good places to start. You can pull out data on basketball, football and baseball, respectively, from NBA.com/stats, NFL.com/stats and MLB.com/statcast.
Specialised platforms add added analysis. Basketball-Reference.com has lots of NBA statistics and comparisons. FanGraphs continues to be one of the premier baseball data sites that provides advanced sabermetrics. Pro Football Focus has extensive player grading and football performance analysis, and FTN Fantasy has advanced football metrics like DVOA.
Analytical information is also available from mainstream media sources like ESPN Stats & Info or TruMedia, which have a wealth of information to explain key sporting trends. But sports fans should make sure to cross check the numbers of virus counts on social media with original databases to use in sports predictions.
Beyond the numbers: the limits of analytics
While analytics help to make better decisions, it does not remove the uncertainty. Human performance is ever-changing and that’s why sports can never be predictable. A statistical model may not be able to quantify locker room chemistry, coaching changes, motivation, or sudden or unplanned tactical changes.
Results can also be affected by late injury announcements, weather, referee decisions and travel fatigue. That is why, sometimes, even the more advanced models fail. One of the reasons why televised games are exciting is because of variance.
The smart fan’s shortcut: when to trust expert predictions
Time, research and knowledge of various aspects are required to make accurate data-driven sports picks. But many fans don’t have the hours to build complex models, update injury info and analyse every matchup detail.
By using a statistical model, combined with up-to-date information, the expert analysis can be an efficient solution. Numbers are analyzed by experienced analysts along with coaching methods, player availability, market movement and other factors that can affect results.
The best blend is a combination of personal research and professional insight. Fans can analyse and form their own views and opinions, and then use them as a basis for comparison with trusted analysts before making their decisions. Consulting with experts and following daily forecasts can be helpful to save time and provide additional confirmation.
So, sports analytics has revolutionized televised sports. Rather than just on the basis of a fan’s feelings or reputation, data can be used to insight into the performance patterns and make smarter assessments. No system can claim to capture every winner but with statistical analysis, context and expert interpretation, there is a more informed way to follow the games on a long-term basis.