It is almost time to start betting on March Madness and we are here to help you identify some of the “safer” options when picking your upsets. There are teams you can trust and teams you can’t in terms of winning the national championship, but what about teams outside the Power 6 Conferences?
That is what we are going to focus on today. The teams that can make or break you on the first two days of the tournament.
Murray State Racers
This may seem obvious given the fact that Matt McMahon’s group is currently ranked in the top 25. In the past, the Racers have deployed star players such as Isaiah Canaan, Cameron Payne, and most recently Ja Morant. Their ability to score in bunches and volume always made Murray State a team to watch.
This season, the Racers boast three players that average between 13 and 18 points per game in KJ Williams, Justice Hill, and Tevin Brown. Murray State has defeated Memphis and Belmont twice this season and even kept it respectable against Auburn for a half. Playing in the Ohio Valley has not provided many opportunities for big-time wins but the Racers have also not stumbled on their way to a 17-0 league record. They defend the perimeter wall and are demons on the offensive glass.
Murray State is the best team in the Ohio Valley Conference at covering the spread with a 16-9-1 record ATS. Their average margin of victory is 18.1 points per game and they outperform the spread by +4.3 points per game which ranks eighth-best in the nation.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
When you are looking for teams that can pull off the major upset, what do you typically search for? The answer is almost always the ability to shoot the deep ball. That is where the Jackrabbits come into play.
South Dakota State is the best three-point shooting team in the nation in terms of percentage at an incredible 45.2% on the season. Wings Baylor Scheierman and Douglas Wilson both average roughly 16 points per game and are snipers from beyond the arc shooting 46% and 40% respectively.
It becomes a little more difficult to trust Eric Henderson’s team when you take their defense into account. South Dakota State ranks 222nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency while allowing opponents to shoot better than 35% from behind the arc.
That said if this team is able to come out of the gates hot and build a lead, very few teams have the firepower from deep to keep up with them. If they fall behind early, however, they may not be able to string together enough stops to get back into the contest. This team is a real boom or bust option.
North Texas Mean Green
Fifth-year head coach Grant McCasland is no stranger to success having won at least 20 games in five of his six seasons as a head coach. Last season, the one time he didn’t attain 20 victories, he won the Conference USA postseason tournament and went to the big dance.
North Texas plays a style similar to Virginia in the sense that they slow it way down, limit opponents’ possessions while running their offense efficiently. The Mean Green rank 357th in the nation in tempo and 17th in the nation in three-point percentage. They are a well-balanced team with four players averaging double figures per game though they are not incredibly deep as just seven players see consistent minutes.
North Texas is also an incredible team on the road this season. The Mean Green are undefeated at 8-0 away from home with an average margin of victory of seven points per game while outperforming the spread by +5.4 points per contest. Good teams win, great teams cover. North Texas does both with 21 wins while covering the spread over 68% of the time.
Others to watch: Davidson, BYU, Saint Marys, Boise State